Prediction Errors – Trains and Large Economies
Our brain is ill equipped to correctly estimate speed of large objects. This error of underestimation leads to large number of trespassing deaths on rail tracks in Mumbai. We found this error and solved it with the Yellow Lines.
Interesting how Economist was able to draw the connection with our work, in pointing out the errors that economists commit while predicting the growth of large economies.
PEOPLE are bad at judging the speed of large objects, especially those coming towards them. That is one reason why so many Indians die crossing Mumbai’s railway tracks. What is true of locomotives is also true of the world’s large, fast-moving countries. People struggle to wrap their heads around the size and speed of populous emerging economies so are taken aback by the impact as those countries come thundering on.
Picture Source: Economist